Following the tragic Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 tourists, India responded with “Operation Sindoor,” targeting terror camps in Pakistan and PoK. As geopolitical tensions rise, markets have witnessed sharp volatility, with investors losing over ₹5 lakh crore in a single session. In this exclusive interview with Business Today’s Siddharth Zarabi, Samir Arora of Helios Capital reflects on past market reactions to such crises. He explains why markets often recover quickly unless tensions escalate further. Arora urges investors to stay calm, avoid emotional decisions, and focus on fundamentals. He also highlights key sectors to watch amid the uncertainty.
In this special episode of Easynomics, Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor of Business Today, speaks with Sajjid Z. Chinoy, Managing Director and Chief India Economist at JP Morgan, to decode how escalating global tariff tensions and shifting trade dynamics could shape India’s economic future. The conversation explores whether India can turn global disruption—especially the ongoing U.S. tariff chaos—into an economic opportunity. Supported by key macro indicators including GDP growth trends, inflation data, and RBI’s forward-looking projections, the episode offers deep insights into India’s readiness to navigate turbulence and capitalize on evolving global realignments. Tune in to Easynomics for expert insight into how India may chart a bold new path amid rising global trade uncertainty.
Watch Sonal Varma, Managing Director & Chief Economist (India & Asia ex-Japan), Nomura in conversation with Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor, Business Today, as they discuss India's growth trajectory amidst global challenges. The conversation touches upon key topics such as the global impact of tariffs on India, inflation trends, the outlook for GDP growth, and the sectors most affected by the current economic climate. Nomura recently revised its GDP growth forecast for India in 2025, lowering it by 10 bps to 5.9%, reflecting a more cautious outlook. Despite this, Nomura remains confident that India is "the least exposed" to shocks from the US' tariff announcements. This is due to India's domestic-demand orientation, benefits from lower oil prices, and its position as a strategic ally to the US, which can help India capitalize on trade diversion and supply chain shifts in the medium term. Nomura continues to forecast 7% growth for India in 2026, signaling a stable long-term outlook. The discussion also covers Nomura’s Nifty 50 outlook, with the target for March 2026 set at 24,970 points, reflecting a 3.5% rise from current levels. Nomura expects a market return of (-9%) to 7% over the next year. Furthermore, Nomura believes that private sector investment and capital expenditure will remain weak in the near term, with urban consumption still sluggish, although rural India shows some positive momentum.
Kenneth Andrade, Founder & CIO of Old Bridge Mutual Fund, shares his insights on sectoral value amidst current market conditions. He emphasizes that while absolute value may be scarce, relative valuations across sectors provide opportunities. Andrade advises focusing on sectors where execution potential is strong, noting that businesses with well-executed models can deliver value over time. He further highlights the importance of patience in the market, suggesting a 3 to 5-year horizon for visibility and growth. By balancing sectoral valuations and execution risks, investors can identify promising opportunities in a dynamic market landscape.
In a remarkable global recognition, nine Indian banks have been named Digital Champions in Deloitte’s 6th Global Digital Banking Maturity (DBM) survey. The 2025 edition surveyed 349 banks across the world, evaluating them across digital channels—public websites, internet banking, mobile apps—and six key customer journey stages. Indian banks stood out, not only securing a spot among 40 global Digital Champions but also outperforming global peers in areas like day-to-day banking, customer onboarding, information gathering, and overall user experience. India’s DBM Index jumped from 43% in 2022 to 59% in 2025, reflecting a 16-percentage point leap—one of the sharpest improvements globally. Deloitte attributes this success to India’s rapid AI integration, focus on customised digital advisory, and evolution beyond traditional banking services. With UX insights now included in the benchmarking, Indian banks have demonstrated superior adaptability and innovation. In this exclusive discussion, we dive deep into the report’s insights and what they mean for the future of Indian banking. In a conversation with Vijay Mani, Partner, Banking and Capital Markets Leader, Deloitte India, Siddharth Zarabi, Editor of Business Today, explores how Indian banks are shaping the global digital banking narrative.
Kenneth Andrade, Founder & Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Old Bridge Mutual Fund, shares his insights on constructing a long-term portfolio. He emphasizes the need to invest in companies that have demonstrated their ability to gain market share globally. According to Andrade, investors should look beyond India's 4% of the world GDP and focus on businesses with the potential to expand internationally. This approach, he believes, will allow investors to capitalize on significant global market opportunities in the long run. His strategy for the next decade remains consistent: invest in businesses with global scaling potential.
In this insightful conversation, Kenneth Andrade, Founder & CIO of Old Bridge Asset Management, delves deep into the current macro challenges posed by the global economic landscape. As the world grapples with the effects of tariffs and trade imbalances, Andrade shares his perspective on how Trump's tariffs are influencing not only the global market but also the Indian economy, which remains relatively better positioned in the face of such uncertainties.He discusses how the US's trade policies may lead to inflationary pressures domestically, while potentially deflationary effects could ripple across the rest of the world. Andrade highlights that Indian equities, although previously pricey, now present a more reasonable investment opportunity amidst global volatility. He also touches on the cash-rich corporates in India and their potential strategic responses, including efficiency improvements over large capital expenditure cycles.Additionally, Andrade offers a positive spin on the outcome of these challenges, suggesting that companies in the US, particularly those in inventory-led industries, might experience a release of cash, presenting a small window of opportunity. As the world recalibrates its supply chains, India emerges as a crucial market that no developed country can afford to neglect.Catch this detailed analysis and more in our Market Masters segment with Kenneth Andrade, Founder & CIO, Old Bridge Mutual Fund in conversation with Siddharth Zarabi, Editor, Business Today.
In its first monetary policy of FY26, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6%, shifting its stance from ‘neutral’ to ‘accommodative’. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced that the decision was taken unanimously by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), aiming to cushion the Indian economy against rising global uncertainties, including US President Donald Trump's tariff announcements. The change in policy stance is expected to bring down lending rates, including home loan EMIs, and support economic growth amid external headwinds. Malhotra noted that the global economic environment remains volatile, with falling crude oil prices, a weaker US dollar, and heightened trade frictions impacting investor sentiment. The central bank revised its FY26 GDP growth forecast downward to 6.5% from 6.7%, while also lowering the inflation projection to 4% from 4.2%, citing easing food prices and lower crude oil rates. However, risks remain. The RBI raised its Q4FY26 inflation forecast to 4.4% to account for potential imported inflation due to global trade tensions. Malhotra emphasized vigilance and proactive engagement with global partners, especially the US. The policy signals a balancing act — supporting growth while managing inflation — in an increasingly uncertain global economic landscape.Watch Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte, decodes the implications of RBI’s rate cut and what lies ahead for India’s economy in FY26. In conversation with Siddharth Zarabi, Editor, Business Today- Indranil Pan, Chief Economist, YES Bank; Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist, Emkay Global and Siddhartha Sanyal, Chief Economist, Bandhan Bank decode the implications of RBI’s rate cut and what lies ahead for India’s economy.
As the U.S. imposes steep tariffs on imports, including a 27% duty on Indian goods, what lies ahead for India’s trade and economic strategy? In conversation with Siddharth Zarabi, Editor, Business Today, former WTO Ambassador Dr. Jayant Dasgupta calls the development a “wake-up call” not just for India, but for the global trading community.While the immediate impact may weigh on global consumers, Dr. Dasgupta stresses that India must focus on two key priorities: first, explore avenues to reduce U.S. tariffs on Indian products through dialogue; and second, urgently improve domestic competitiveness. With high transaction costs and patchy infrastructure still a concern, he argues that India must set its “own house in order” regardless of whether Trump’s tariffs are reversed in six months or several years.
In conversation with Siddharth Zarabi, Editor, Business Today, Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist at Care Ratings, breaks down the likely impact of Trump's reciprocal tariffs on India’s economy. She estimates a direct hit of $9 billion—about 0.2 to 0.3% of GDP—but adds that rupee weakening and higher tariff burdens on competing nations like China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh may soften the blow. Still, Sinha warns the real challenge could be the indirect impact on global growth and supply chains, as the world navigates rising trade tensions.
US President Donald Trump has imposed sweeping reciprocal tariffs on over 180 countries, including India, China, Vietnam, and Taiwan. India now faces a 27% import duty, a move that could significantly impact trade, exports, and key economic sectors. While Trump has referred to Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a "friend", he has also criticized India’s trade policies, calling its tariffs "very, very tough." With global markets in turmoil and US allies expressing shock over one of the biggest trade shifts in recent years, what does this mean for India's economy? How will these tariffs affect Indian industries, global trade relations, and economic growth? Watch a conversation with Siddharth Zarabi, Editor, Business Today, as Former Commerce Secretary Anup Wadhawan deciphers the impact of Trump’s tariffs on India.Will India retaliate? Which sectors will bear the brunt of these duties? And what could be the long-term impact on India's trade relations with the US? Tune in now as we discuss the winners and losers in this trade war and explore what’s next for India’s economy!
US President Donald Trump has imposed reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries, with India facing a 27% import duty. Announcing April 2 as 'Liberation Day', Trump claimed these tariffs will protect American industries from unfair trade practices. The White House chart displayed during the announcement indicated India charges a 52% tariff, justifying the US' decision for a "discounted" 27% tariff. The move has sparked concerns in India, as the Commerce Ministry issued a statement saying it is carefully examining the implications. It assured that engagements with stakeholders are ongoing, and India is also exploring new trade opportunities amid the evolving US trade policy. Meanwhile, discussions between Indian and US trade teams continue to finalize a multi-sectoral Bilateral Trade Agreement, focusing on supply chain integration and other mutual interests. Join Siddharth Zarabi, Editor, Business Today, in a discussion with top experts: Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, Care Ratings Dhiraj Nayyar, Chief Economist, Vedanta Dr. Jayant Dasgupta, Former Ambassador to WTO How will these tariffs impact Indian industries, exporters, and trade relations? Can India negotiate a better deal? Watch now as we decode the impact on India!
India’s GDP growth reached 6.2% in Q3 FY25, rising from 5.4% in Q2, with real GDP at ₹47.17 lakh crore. The growth was driven by strong rural demand, government capital expenditure, and festive season consumption, though it remained lower than the 8.6% recorded in Q3 FY24. Economists highlight agriculture as the key driver, with Rumki Majumdar, Economist at Deloitte, pointing to its strength in sustaining rural demand, while manufacturing continues to lag. Vivek Kumar, Economist at QuantEco, attributes the slight decline in growth to the base effect, but reaffirms agriculture and consumption as major contributors. With services holding steady and private consumption growing at 6.9%, India’s economic outlook remains strong, and the government now projects GDP growth of 6.5% for FY25, slightly higher than the earlier 6.4% estimate.
India's GDP growth rebounded to 6.2% in Q3 FY25, up from 5.4% in the previous quarter, driven by strong rural demand, government capex, and festive season spending. However, growth remains lower than the 8.6% recorded last year. With the full-year GDP estimate revised to 6.5%, experts, including Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, weigh in on the policy outlook. Sabnavis suggests that while a 7%+ growth rate may be challenging, government strategies remain aligned with previous projections. He highlights monsoon impact on agriculture and external trade as key factors to watch.
India's GDP growth accelerated to 6.2% in the third quarter (Q3) of fiscal year 2024-25, ending December 2024. This marks an improvement from the 5.4% growth recorded in the previous quarter (Q2 FY25). Real GDP at constant prices for Q3 FY25 is estimated at Rs 47.17 lakh crore, compared to Rs 44.44 lakh crore in Q3 FY24. Gross Value Added (GVA) also grew by 6.2% year-on-year, while nominal GDP growth, which factors in inflation, stood at 9.9%.The growth rebound is attributed to improved rural demand following a good monsoon, increased government spending on infrastructure, and a revival in consumer-centric sectors during the festive season. However, the 6.2% growth remains lower than the 8.6% recorded in the same quarter last year.For the full fiscal year 2024-25, the government now projects GDP growth at 6.5%, slightly higher than the earlier estimate of 6.4%. Watch Siddharth Zarabi, Editor, Business Today in conversation with Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte; Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda and Vivek Kumar, Economist, QuantEco.
The government is set to introduce the Income-Tax Bill, 2025, a comprehensive revamp of India’s tax laws, replacing the Income-Tax Act, 1961. The new legislation, scheduled to come into effect from April 1, 2026, aims to simplify tax structures, enhance compliance, and curb tax evasion.The Bill introduces 16 schedules and 23 chapters, compared to 14 schedules in the existing law, restructuring sections for improved clarity.It defines taxable income, residency status, and income sources, covering salaries, business profits, capital gains, and foreign earnings. Exemptions for charitable trusts and political parties remain, while deductions for salaries, rent, and employee welfare expenses have been specified. A key feature of the new tax law is section restructuring to make tax provisions more accessible and easier to understand for taxpayers. The Bill also introduces faceless assessment and dispute resolution mechanisms, reducing bureaucratic delays and human intervention. Tax compliance will become more streamlined with mandatory electronic filing, expanded tax audit requirements, and digitised documentation. The General Anti-Avoidance Rule (GAAR) has been reinforced, along with stricter transfer pricing regulations to monitor cross-border transactions and prevent tax avoidance.The Bill is expected to omit references to the old tax regime, officially making the new tax regime the default. However, taxpayers can still opt for the old tax regime if they choose. With a focus on digital compliance, transparency, and efficient tax administration, the Income-Tax Bill, 2025, marks a major shift in India’s taxation framework.Watch Dinesh Kanabar, CEO of Dhruva Advisors LLP; Sandeep Jhunjhunwala , Partner , Nangia Andersen LLP and Ved Jain, Tax Expert in conversation with Business Today Editor, Siddharth Zarabi.
The stock markets reacted negatively to the RBI’s decision to cut the policy repo rate by 25 basis points, with the FMCG index witnessing a sharp decline. According to Garima Kapoor, Executive Vice President - Economist at Elara Capital, the reaction stems from two key factors. First, traders were anticipating additional liquidity measures, particularly a CRR cut, which did not materialize. Second, the RBI’s decision to maintain a neutral stance, rather than signaling a clear easing cycle, led to uncertainty regarding future rate cuts. Additionally, consumer stocks have been underperforming after the Union Budget, as the market awaits visible signs of a consumption boost. Kapoor believes this is a short-term reaction, as RBI’s liquidity signals over the last 15 days indicate a commitment to ensuring adequate liquidity in the system.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday announced that the central bank has slashed the policy repo rate by 25 basis points from 6.5 per cent to 6.25 per cent. The decision was taken on a unanimous basis. The MPC committee decided to maintain a neutral stance. The SDF rate shall be at 6 per cent and the bank rate shall be pegged at 6.5 per cent, he added. The governor said in his address that flexible inflation targeting framework has served India well, while adding the interest of the economy demands financial stability. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Friday forecasted inflation to ease to 4.2 per cent in the upcoming financial year, buoyed by favourable conditions such as good crop production and ease in vegetable prices. For the current financial year ending March, the central bank has projected CPI inflation at 4.8 per cent assuming a normal monsoon. The Sanjay Malhotra-led MPC has projected inflation at 4.5 per cent in the first quarter of the financial year 2025-26, 4 per cent in the second quarter; 3.8 per cent in Q3; and 4.2 per cent in Q4. RBI projected real GDP growth at 6.7% for FY26, For Q1 FY26, the GDP growth forecast was lowered to 6.7% from 6.9%, while the Q2 projection was reduced to 7% from 7.3%. The RBI retained its growth estimate for Q3 and Q4 FY26 at 6.5%. Watch top Economists DK Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL; Sunil Sinha, Economist and Garima Kapoor, Executive Vice President - Economist , Elara Capital in conversation with Siddharth Zarabi, Editor, Business Today as they discuss the RBI MPC decisions and their impact.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, has reduced the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, marking the first rate cut in nearly five years. The decision, taken unanimously by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), comes amid slowing growth and easing inflation. While the stance remains neutral, signaling flexibility for future moves, experts believe this could be the beginning of a rate cut cycle. According to CRISIL Chief Economist DK Joshi, the RBI may lower rates further by 75 to 100 basis points, depending on both domestic and global economic conditions. However, with global uncertainties and inflation risks still in play, the timing and extent of future cuts remain uncertain.
Join the discussion featuring: Sanjiv Puri, President, CII and Chairman & Managing Director, ITC Limited; Rajiv Memani, President Designate, CII and Chairman and CEO - EY India and Chair – EY Growth Markets Council; and R Mukundan, Vice President, CII and Managing Director & CEO of Tata Chemicals Limited with Siddharth Zarabi, Editor, Business Today as they analyze key expectations from the Union Budget 2025. The discussion delves into key topics shaping the Budget 2025 wishlist, including private capex, GDP growth, inflation, job creation, government expenditure, Service Sector fiscal deficit, consumption, agriculture, and investments in government infrastructure.
As Union Budget 2025 approaches, hopes are running high among India’s middle class, especially salaried individuals, who are anticipating tax relief to offset rising inflation and revive demand. With private consumption comprising 60% of GDP, its decline has become a concern. High inflation, particularly in food prices, has eroded purchasing power, impacting urban households and demand for essential goods. A tax cut or increased exemption limits could inject much-needed momentum into the economy. India continues to be the world’s fastest-growing major economy, driven by government spending, with corporate profits hitting a 15-year high. Yet, hiring and wages have lagged behind. Reviving consumer demand, especially in urban areas, is critical for sustaining growth, and middle-income households are counting on measures that put more money in their pockets. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s eighth budget, to be presented on February 1, 2025, is expected to address these challenges while laying out the government’s economic vision for Prime Minister Modi’s third term. Join HP Ranina, Advocate, Supreme Court of India, and Dinesh Kanabar, CEO, Dhruva Advisors LLP, in discussion with Siddharth Zarabi, Editor, Business Today, as they analyze key expectations and potential tax reforms from the Union Budget 2025.
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