Is India preparing to choke Pakistan’s Indus water flow? Here's what we know

India is reportedly preparing to sharply escalate its use of water from the Indus river system, a vital resource for Pakistan’s agriculture and power needs, as part of a broader retaliatory response to a terror attack in Kashmir that New Delhi blames squarely on Islamabad.

India has suspended its participation in the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, a landmark water-sharing accord with Pakistan, following the April 22 attack that killed 26 civilians. Though a ceasefire was agreed after the worst fighting between the nuclear-armed neighbors in decades, the treaty remains in abeyance.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has since ordered the acceleration of projects to exploit the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers—three of the six rivers allocated primarily to Pakistan under the treaty.

One high-impact plan involves doubling the length of the Ranbir Canal on the Chenab from 60 km to 120 km. This expansion would increase India’s ability to divert water from 40 to 150 cubic meters per second, dramatically reducing downstream flow to Pakistan's breadbasket, Punjab province. Though the canal predates the treaty, its expansion is seen as a bold challenge to existing norms.

A Reuters report cites six government sources and documents confirming that these plans are moving forward, even after the ceasefire. 

The ministries of Water Resources and External Affairs declined to comment, as did state-owned hydropower giant NHPC.

The impact

Agriculture at Risk

• 80% of Pakistan’s farmland depends on Indus water.
• Disruptions threaten crops like wheat, rice, cotton.
• Unpredictable flows hit yields, raise farming costs.

Urban Water Shortages

• Cities like Karachi, Lahore rely on Indus for drinking water.
• Reduced flows could spark urban water crises.

Power Generation Threatened

• 1/3 of Pakistan’s electricity comes from Indus-fed dams.
• Flow cuts hit energy supply, disrupt economy.

Economic & Social Fallout

• Indus supports 237M people, 25% of GDP.
• Water cuts risk food shortages, factory shutdowns, rural migration.

Rising Political Tensions

• Provinces (Punjab, Sindh) already fight over water.
• New shortages could ignite inter-provincial disputes.

Security Escalation

• Pakistan calls treaty suspension an “act of war.”
• Risk of diplomatic and military flare-ups.

Short-Term vs Long-Term Impact

• Immediate: India can reduce flows by 5–10%.
• Long-Term: Dams & canals could slash Pakistan’s water over years.

PM Modi stoked the flames with a fiery declaration: “Water and blood cannot flow together,” framing water as a strategic lever in India’s response to cross-border terrorism. Delhi insists the treaty will remain suspended until Pakistan “credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for terrorism.”

For Pakistan, the stakes are existential. Nearly 80% of its farms and most of its hydropower projects depend on the Indus system. Islamabad has called any attempt to divert water an “act of war.”

India is also eyeing five new water storage projects on the Chenab and Jhelum tributaries, a first for the Indus system, alongside a push to raise hydropower capacity in Kashmir from 3,360 MW to 12,000 MW.

But experts warn the move could backfire. “Delhi’s use of water against Islamabad risks licensing Beijing to adopt the same strategy against India,” said David Michel, a water security specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.