'Donald Trump might give India a sweetheart deal': US scholar on stopping India-Pakistan war

American foreign policy scholar John Mearsheimer has suggested that former President Donald Trump might try to prevent an India-Pakistan war by offering India a lucrative economic incentive. In comments made to Spectator TV, Mearsheimer speculated that tariffs—controversial as they were—could serve as leverage in high-stakes diplomacy.

“Maybe Trump could tell the Indians that he'd give them a real sweetheart deal if he felt they were on the verge of going to war and Trump didn't want them to go to war,” Mearsheimer said.

He acknowledged the strong ties between the two administrations during Trump’s presidency, saying, “I think relations between the Trump administration and the Modi administration are very good, and we're not likely to play hard ball with Modi in the way you just described.” Still, he admitted, “It’s just hard to say what’s going on with regard to US-Indian relations over the Kashmir crisis at this point in time.”

The broader context, according to Mearsheimer, is far more alarming. He warned that the India-Pakistan conflict is dangerously unstable, and noted that the United States has historically intervened to de-escalate tensions. “These are two nuclear-armed countries that have a history of fighting wars,” he said. “In the past, the United States has intervened in crises between these two countries to go to great lengths to shut them down.”

He explained that U.S. diplomacy has often focused on preventing India from launching a major attack, fearing that it could trigger Pakistan’s nuclear response. “We’ve always feared that a conflict that started off at the conventional level would escalate to the nuclear level,” he said, pointing to the military imbalance. “The conventional balance of power greatly favors the Indians.”

However, Mearsheimer expressed doubt that Trump would respond with the urgency previous presidents demonstrated. “You don't have the sense that the Trump administration is paying careful attention to this conflict,” he said. “Let’s hope this is not the case, but this one could spin out of control.”