Axis Bank shares in a free fall, what should investors do?

Shares of Axis Bank are falling since the last five sessions. The banking stock, which saw a significant rally from around Rs 950 to Rs 1,235 in the last one month, appears to have run out of steam in the near term. Axis Bank stock closed at Rs 1,161 mark on Tuesday, falling 1.06% on BSE.  Five sessions ago, on April 28, the stock ended at Rs 1192.70. 

Ameya Ranadive, Chartered Market Technician, CFTe, Sr Technical Analyst, StoxBox says, "The momentum now appears to be stalling. The stock is showing early signs of distribution and profit booking, as indicated by the recent price rejection near the upper resistance zone and a dip below the short-term moving average."

"Volume analysis suggests selling pressure is creeping in. Key support levels lie at Rs 1,154 and Rs 1,143, while immediate resistance is visible at Rs 1,181 and Rs 1,235. RSI has cooled off from overbought territory, while the ADX indicates waning trend strength. Momentum indicators are flattening, reinforcing the view that the stock may consolidate or correct in the near term. With uncertainty prevailing, Axis Bank currently finds itself in a no-trade zone, and traders are advised to await a clearer trend confirmation before taking fresh positions," added Ranadive.

Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities said, "Axis Bank has rallied more than 25 percent from its February lows, peaking near Rs 1,238.70. The recent decline appears to be a healthy pullback within a broader uptrend. The stock is now trading near a key support cluster that includes the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level at Rs 1,160 and the 20-day simple moving average at Rs 1,130. This zone has previously acted as a resistance and now serves as an inflection point. A breakdown below Rs 1,150 could lead to further downside toward Rs 1,135 or even the 61.8 percent retracement level at Rs 1,111. The momentum indicators reflect short-term cooling. The RSI is trending near 55, while the MACD has turned negative with a bearish crossover, indicating that weakness may persist in the near term.
For short-term traders, a close below Rs 1,150 may warrant caution. However, for positional investors, this retracement presents a potential re-entry opportunity if the stock stabilizes above support. Long-term investors may consider accumulating at lower levels, as the primary trend remains firm. A move above Rs 1,200 could revive bullish momentum and set the stage for a retest of previous highs, or may test Rs 1,250-1,270."

Amol Athawale, VP-technical Research, Kotak Securities said, "After a promising uptrend rally, the stock is witnessing profit booking at higher levels. However, the medium term texture of the chart is still in to the positive side. Technically, 20 day and 200 day SMA (Simple Moving Average) would be the key support zones for the short term traders. If it succeeds to trade above the same, it could retest the level of Rs 1200. Further upside may also continue, which could lift the stock up to Rs 1235. However, below 200 day SMA or below Rs 1130. Uptrend would become vulnerable. Below the same, traders may prefer to exit out from the trading long positions."

Ravi Singh, SVP - Retail Research, Religare Broking said, “On the daily chart, the stock appears negative in the near term, as we are witnessing some profit booking at higher levels after a sharp reversal from the support zone of  Rs 950– Rs 1000. The 50-day EMA indicates positive momentum in the short term, as the price is still trading above it.

Currently, the Rs 1100–1140 range will act as immediate support, while Rs 1200 is the key resistance on the upside. If the stock successfully closes above  Rs 1200 with more than 3% momentum, we can expect the bullish trend to continue toward the Rs 1400–1600 zone. On the other hand, if the stock trades below Rs 1100, a move toward Rs 1000 could be triggered in the near term. Overall, the stock is likely to trade within the Rs 1100–1200 range. A breakout on either side of this range will likely confirm a clear trend, with potential targets as mentioned.”
 

BofA Securities has changed its stance on Axis Bank to neutral from Buy. 

The firm also pared price target for the bank’s shares from Rs 1,350 to Rs 1,300. 

BofA Securities expects that net interest margins (NIMs) and return on assets (RoAs) could face challenges due to the ongoing rate cut cycle. Over 60% of Axis Bank’s loan book is based on floating rates, which could be impacted by the rate changes.

Axis Bank needs to raise its growth differential relative to its Big 4 peers to drive a sustainable re-rating, BoFA said. 

A R Ramachandran, SEBI registered Independent analyst says, "Axis Bank stock price is slightly bearish on the Daily charts with strong resistance at Rs 1190. A Daily close below support of Rs 1146 could lead to a target of Rs 1083 in the near term."

YES Securities expects the banking stock to hit Rs 1,475 in a year. It has a buiy call on the stock as  the brokerage values the standalone bank at 1.7 times FY27 P/BV for an FY26/27E RoE profile of 14.6/14.5%. "We assign a value of Rs 171 per share to the subsidiaries, on SOTP basis," said YES Securities. 

 Brokerage Nuvama also has a buy call on the stock with a price target of Rs 1,400. 

"We maintain ‘BUY’ on attractive valuation with a target of Rs 1,400/2x BV (earlier Rs 1,220). Asset quality in constant currency terms has stabilised while profit and loss will take a few quarters. The bank has a tightly matched duration (on rates) of assets and liabilities. Better system liquidity will aid deposit growth," said Nuvama.